With the first full weekend of college football just one day away, it’s time to ask the all-important question: which four teams are going to make the College Football Playoff?
Q. Which four teams will qualify for the College Football Playoff?
Bart Doan
On Twitter: @TheCoachBart
So you can look at this from a hyper-predictive standpoint or you can look at it from a logistical one. You have four spots, five power five conferences, and a gang of five that is only given lip service in terms of actually being a part of this thing. The weight is supposed to be placed on conference champs, and the system is going to look like rubbish if they go to the “two teams from one conference” well this early.
Basically, you’re going to get four conference champs. So who gets left out? Well, look at the schedules. The two most polarizing (read: a lot of people watch them, and don’t be stupid and think that television ratings don’t factor into these things) conferences are the Big 10 and the SEC. They also harbor the two best divisions in college football (Big 10 East and SEC West).
So bank on the champs from those conferences getting in, such that no 4-loss team from the weaker division wins the crown. I’ll take those odds. Then you have the ACC, which is massively top heavy and more importantly, has the two clear best teams in the same division so they can’t rematch and kill the other’s chances in a title game. So you’ll get the ACC champ, either Clemson or Florida State.
Lastly, you go ahead and look at the Big 12 and the Pac 12. Who has the easier route? I guess you look at the top teams and then look at their schedules. It’s not a clear cut pretty picture for any, but give me the Big 12 champ in this case because the Pac 12 is good at eating its own annually. You’re getting the same thing as last year, Big 10, SEC, Big 12, and ACC champs.
And because there is no copout that allows me to leave with that, we’ll go Michigan, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, and Clemson.
Kevin Causey
On Twitter: @CFBZ
Alabama- Let’s get the easy one out the way first. I think Alabama wins the SEC again this season so they are an easy pick for me to make the playoff. Despite having a new quarterback, the Tide are deep at the offensive skill positions and have the most talented defense in the nation.
Florida State- I’m wavering back and forth on this pick due to Sean Maguire’s health. They may very well lose in week one to Ole Miss but then it’s a long way until the end of the season. They get Clemson at home and I think that win will vault them over the top and into the playoffs.
Oklahoma- My big question here is do I go with Oklahoma or a team from the Big Ten. I think the Big Ten beats each other up this year (although I could easily see Ohio State in this spot) and because of that costs the league a spot in the final four. Oklahoma gets Ohio State in Norman and I think that straight up win (along with a Big 12 Championship) gets the Sooners into this final four.
Stanford- Ah, the wild card. Call me crazy but I am really high on the Cardinal this season. I realize that they could very well lose their first game of the season to Kansas State but I also think they may be the steadiest team in college football. If anybody can weather a tough schedule like they have, it’s Stanford. David Shaw is the most underrated coach in college football. He’s 54-14 as a head coach and in five years he’s won three Pac-12 Championships. This is the year the Cardinal and Christian McCaffrey break though.
Terry Johnson
On Twitter: @SectionTPJ
I’ll qualify my comments by saying that the SEC champion won’t make the College Football Playoff this fall. I expect Alabama to win the SEC West, but to fall to Florida in the conference championship game. While there will be pressure on the Selection Committee to put the Crimson Tide in the field despite the loss, it won’t be able to because of Florida State’s win over the Gators the week before.
Likewise, Houston will come up just short in its quest to earn a spot in the playoff. Even if — and it’s a big if — the Cougars get past Oklahoma in the season opener, they’ll lose to Louisville late in the year to end any talk about the Group of Five crashing the party.
Now that we’ve established who’s out, let’s take a look at who’s in.
Pac-12 champion Washington will earn the No. 4 seed. While Stanford is the popular pick to win the North, the Huskies – not the Cardinal – led the conference in total defense last season. With seven starters returning from that stellar unit this fall, UW will win the league in convincing fashion.
Big 12 champion Oklahoma will end up as the No. 3 seed. Although the Sooners won’t finish the season with an undefeated record, they’ll overcome a loss early in the year to win the league, as they’ve done several times during Bob Stoops’ tenure in Norman. The teams in the conference won’t have any answers for Baker Mayfield, who will be the best quarterback in the Big 12 again this season.
Ohio State will win the Big Ten and capture the No. 2 spot. Sure, the Buckeyes need to find some new starters, but they’re still loaded with talent. Considering that OSU is 31-1 in Big Ten regular season games under Urban Meyer and has won 11 of the last 12 meetings against Michigan, I like their chances to win the East.
Florida State will win the ACC and earn the coveted top seed in the College Football Playoff. The ‘Noles return 11 starters from last year’s offense, which ranked 20th nationally in yards per play. Regardless of whether it’s Deondre Francois or Sean Maguire under center, FSU’s offense will be one of the most explosive in the country, which will be just enough to propel the Seminoles to a hard-fought victory over Clemson.
Phil Harrison
On Twitter: @PhilHarrisonCFB
All good picks, and trying to figure this thing out at the beginning of the year is a little like trying to throw darts at a list of name while blindfolded. With your good hand tied behind your back. While dodging spitballs. We think we know who’s going to be good, but in the college football world, every year and every team is different.
But … we are here to try and figure this all out before any games get played, so here goes.
Bart is spot on with one team coming from four of the five power five conferences. It has to be a champion, and has to be a team that has played a tough enough schedule. That’s the landscape that has been carved out thus far by the College Football Playoff Committee.
For starters, I don’t see the SEC champion being left out. The conference has won seven of the last nine national titles, and we saw the Tide elevated to a No. 2 seed before it was even a given that it would reach the conference championship game. It’s going to take some time for the perception of the SEC to go downhill for all the winning that has occurred in recent memory. I still think when it’s all said and done, Alabama finds a way to put all of that talent in the right spot — new signal caller or not — and get it done.
That leaves three of four of the rest of the power conferences. If we go strictly by talent and schedule, taking all of the wacky things that always seem to happen during the season out of the equation, it should go Oklahoma from the Big 12, Clemson from the ACC, Ohio State from the Big Ten (sorry Michigan has to go to East Lansing and Columbus with a new QB), and Washington from the Pac-12.
Yes, I agree with Terry on the Huskies. I think the they are flying under the radar just a wee-bit. They have a great defense, have another year under their belt with a new system under Chris Peterson, and have a favorable schedule.
Of those champions, I think Oklahoma beats a young OSU squad in Norman before the Buckeyes get it all figured out and win that head-to-head as a tie-breaker, leaving Urban Meyer just on the outside looking in for consecutive years.
If you didn’t get all of that, it would be Alabama (SEC), Washington (Pac-12), Clemson (ACC), and Oklahoma (Big 12).
Until, say — a Houston spoils it all and beats Oklahoma in week one. Then throw it all out the window.
