It’s Wednesday, which means it’s to for our staff to discuss college football’s hottest topics. Thus far, we’ve talked about the best coaching hires, the worst coaching hires, the biggest surprise team, the most disappointing team, impact transfers, intriguing quarterback situations, next year’s NFL draft and sleeping giants in college football. Last week, our staff debated whether the Big 12 should expand and what teams it should add if it did.
This week, we’ll gaze into our respective crystal balls and make some predictions about the upcoming season.
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Question: Which team will come out of nowhere to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff?
Kevin Causey
On Twitter @CFBZ
I truly believe that having a team come “out of nowhere” to get to the College Football Playoff is simply not going to happen.
With that understanding, which team would be a shock to be in the CFP is how I will answer this question.
Tom Herman at Houston has done a great job and after going 13-1 in year one, he has set up the Cougars to be a possible contender if everything falls into place. If Houston makes the CFP, even though they were really good last year, that would be shocking.
Houston has a chance to “shock the world” in game one as they play Oklahoma in Houston. A win over the Sooners would give the Cougars legitimacy. The Cougs also have Cincinnati, Louisville, and a couple of other games that could fall into the quality win category.
If Houston gets past Oklahoma in week one and then runs the table it will be difficult to keep them out of the CFP.
Bart Doan
On Twitter @TheCoachBart
Through two years of the CFB Playoff, genuine surprises have been as hard to come by as a Hillary Clinton supporter willing to admit that she’s ever made one mistake in her life, ever. There’s not much “Cinderella” about Ohio State, Alabama, Oregon, and so-on. So personally, I think the odds are wildly against a rogue, out-of-nowhere contender getting in.
Michigan State was probably the closest thing we’ve gotten in two years, and Michigan State had been building steadily to that point for a few years. Since “nobody” isn’t an acceptable answer in this spot, I’ll take a wild flier on UCLA out of the Pac-12.
For one, the conference doesn’t look like it will have an overwhelming favorite. Recent contenders Oregon and Stanford have major questions across the board, particularly at the most important position in the game, and USC has become the eternal Bigfoot of college football in that you know the talent is out there, but it never shows itself.
UCLA will hop on the back of quarterback Josh Rosen and a schedule tailor-made for success. Stanford, USC, Arizona, and Utah all come to their home joint. An early national narrative game looms right off the bat against Texas A&M of the SEC. They skip Oregon altogether in the regular season.
So yeah, we’ll go with the Bruins. I’ve talked myself into it.
Phil Harrison
On Twitter @PhilHarrisonCFB
Though past history doesn’t exactly write the next unpredictable chapter of college football, I’m going to the well in the state of Alabama again with the colors of burnt orange and navy blue. Yep, I’m looking at you Auburn. You’re due to make a splash again, and there’s a lot of pieces to the puzzle that make sense.
Unlike last year, the quarterback situation has to figure itself out, but it wasn’t exactly clear heading into 2010 and 2013 either, and history tells us Cam Newton and Nick Marshall fared pretty well. Between returners Jeremy Johnson and Sean White being a year wiser, and the insertion of transfer John Franklin III, you have to believe someone will emerge in that culture of competition.
The coaching? Yeah, Gus Malzahn’s hind quarters might still be smarting from last year’s disappointing season, but he wasn’t born into the circle of coaches yesterday. He has a proven offensive system that works when the decision-making under center is solid, and the defense has six returning starters and a slew of talented kids that the recruiting types have been high on to fill in the rest of the gaps.
There is of course the issue of trying to punch a hole through the tough SEC West, and having Clemson on the schedule to start things off doesn’t help, but they come to Jordan-Hare as does LSU, Texas A&M, and Arkansas. Going on the road to Ole Miss and Alabama will be no walk in the park, but things could be a lot worse in the SEC.
There’s simply too much talent on the roster for Auburn to repeat the underwhelming body of work we saw last year, and I like them to have a bounce back year and make a loud thud in 2016.
Joe Dexter
On Twitter @BuckeyeRadio
If you’re going to dig deep into a dark hole to try and find a team that will come out of nowhere, we might as well head to Baton Rouge, where The Hatter is always asking riddles that can’t be answered.
There is no doubt that the LSU Tigers have the talent to make a run at a college football playoff berth.
Literally.
Yet, the truth is that even a physical force like Leonard Fournette can’t run over every team during his final collegiate campaign.
To come out of nowhere, there are a lot of questions that need to be answered. The biggest one is whether Brandon Harris — under the guidance of Les Miles and Cam Cameron — will improve enough to be considered a true threat?
Harris and the Tiger offense finished 106th in passing offense and 102nd in pass efficiency last season. The big-armed signal caller completed just 55 percent of his passes in Southeastern Conference play. He averaged less than seven yards per completion, and became so unreliable late in games that he only completed 35 passes in the fourth quarter last year. The junior only completed 15 throws when the game was tied during the regular and bowl season.
Sure, some of the offensive failure is on Harris, but a lot of it has to be on the coaching staff in place. The Tigers have to be willing to be come a two-dimensional offense and give Harris the reigns to play his position.
If Les Miles wants a chance at keeping his job, he’ll make the adjustments to open up this offense. Yes, he’s won 77 percent of his games while at Louisiana State — some of which were the greatest moments in school history — but the fact of the matter is that history is slowly fading away in the in Miles’ rear-view mirror. After all, LSU hasn’t beaten Alabama since the 2011 season.
On the positive side, this is the second time in Miles’ career in which he entered the season off after posting eight and nine-win seasons in back-to-back years.
The first time, he went on a four-year run in which LSU went 44-9.
But, that was then and this is now. A legendary program and coach are sitting a crossroads, deciding if they’re going to put the pedal to the medal or wait for the freight train of college football to pass them by.
For the Tigers to come out of nowhere and surprise the college football world, nearly everything has to fall perfectly into place.
It’s always important to remember though when looking back, objects are always closer than they appear.
Terry Johnson:
On Twitter @SectionTPJ
As Bart correctly notes above, there haven’t been any true surprises in the College Football Playoff. Of the eight teams that qualified for the field, seven started the year ranked 12th or higher. The lone outlier was Oklahoma, which was ranked 19th in the initial AP Poll last fall.
To put it another way: no team has started from outside of the rankings and earned a spot in the playoffs.
Or, as Guru Pitka would say, “No one has gone from nowhere to now here”.
That could change this season. Led by new head coach Mark Richt, the Miami Hurricanes could come out of nowhere to capture of one the four coveted berths in the College Football Playoff.
Make no mistake about it: UM was a much better team than last year’s record would indicate. After Al Golden’s dismissal, the team rallied to win four of its last five regular season games, including a victory in the finale over Coastal Division runner-up Pittsburgh.
In other words: talent wasn’t the problem, leadership was.
With Richt on the sidelines, that won’t be a problem. While many Georgia fans will scoff at this notion, it’s important to point out that Richt led the Bulldogs to eight top 10 finishes during his 15-year tenure in Athens. This highly successful track record – in which he guided the Bulldogs to more 10-win seasons than legendary UGA head coach Vince Dooley – speaks volumes about his leadership ability.
Now that UM has the right head coach in place, there’s no reason to think that it can’t win the ACC Championship this season. After all, Richt inherits a veteran offense that returns 10 starters, including Brad Kaaya, who’s thrown for 6,436 yards in two seasons at the ‘Canes signal caller. The defense should be equally solid under new coordinator Manny Diaz, whose aggressive style of play will help the Canes generate even more turnovers than they did last year (24th nationally with 25).
In addition, the schedule sets up nicely, as both Florida State and North Carolina have to visit Coral Gables, leaving a Oct. 29 clash with Notre Dame as the only difficult road contest. If – and it’s a big if – Miami picks up at least two “W’s” in those contests and wins the ACC title game, it will be exactly where it expected when it joined the conference: competing for a national championship.
How’s that for a bold prediction?
