We are down to just eight College Football Playoff hopefuls, in addition to two others we feel we should mention as well. Their scenarios en route to the Playoff are more or less clear, though there are a few possibilities where we honestly won’t know who will make the Playoff until the committee tells us on Sunday. Without further ado, this is what each hopeful needs to root for.
Clemson: The Tigers are in with a win. Can they survive a loss, though? The answer to that is probably not. But if Clemson does look like it might lose Saturday night, then rooting for Stanford to lose as well won’t hurt. Clemson’s two top-10 wins might trump Ohio State’s resume, but it would be a nail-biter. Clemson also needs to hope that North Carolina won’t jump the Tigers, which the Tar Heels will only likely do if the game isn’t close. An Alabama loss in the SEC Championship Game won’t hurt the cause either. Really, though, Clemson is a long shot (though not as long as some would have you think) unless it wins.
Alabama: Alabama is also in “win and in” mode. Can Alabama survive a loss? Compare the Tide’s resume to Ohio State’s in this week’s Bubble Watch. Seven wins against the top 40 is a lot, and Alabama has a superior SOS to boot. If Stanford loses, the committee will at least have to discuss Alabama against Ohio State. The Tide are not likely to be favored in that discussion (and last year’s Sugar Bowl will be in the back of each committee member’s mind, even if it can’t be actually discussed), but from a pure resume perspective Alabama has a definite edge. Like Clemson, though, Alabama really does not want to risk a loss, because the Tide are not likely to be selected if they don’t win on Saturday.
Oklahoma: Sit back, relax, and enjoy the games. You’re in. Maybe root against Alabama or Clemson this weekend so you can avoid the Tide in the semifinals (or in the Playoff altogether), but other than that there are no particular games of interest.
Iowa: People keep talking about Ohio State getting in if we see some upsets. Why wouldn’t Iowa, at 12-1 from the Big Ten with two more top 40 wins than the Buckeyes, get the same treatment? Iowa is in with a win, but if the Hawkeyes lose to Michigan State by a field goal (or less) and both Alabama and Stanford (or both Clemson and Stanford) lose, you have to imagine that they will be considered as well.
Michigan State: The Spartans need a win to get in and probably have no chance with a loss–even with those three wins over top-20 teams. I don’t think head-to-head and the extra good wins will outweigh that Nebraska loss when this resume is compared to Ohio State’s, even if the argument can be made. Michigan State is probably the only team on this page that we can say with absolute certainty is in with a win but out with a loss (though if we’re being honest, Iowa’s chances of getting in with a loss are pretty negligible, too).
Ohio State: You might notice a trend here. Everyone else on this page (except for North Carolina) has a better case for the Playoff in terms of pure resume. Ohio State’s case is simple–the Buckeyes are saying that even if the schedule didn’t let them prove it, they are clearly one of the best four teams in the country. That might be true, which is why the Buckeyes will probably get the benefit of the doubt over just about everyone else here.
So what do the Buckeyes need to root for to get in? Their best bet is if Florida beats Alabama and USC beats Stanford. Also, Michigan State beating Iowa handily helps, as it makes the Buckeyes’ loss look even better. This is important, though. Alabama plays before Clemson on Saturday. If Alabama loses, Ohio State probably wants Clemson to win. The Tigers will have a better resume than the Buckeyes and probably stacked up in terms of “eye test” for much of the season. The Buckeyes don’t want North Carolina and Clemson in this debate with them. They want it as simple as possible; they want one spot left open and for there to be no other real choice for that spot.
The Buckeyes don’t want the committee having to decide which two out of OSU, Clemson, and North Carolina to take to the Playoff. They want Clemson, Oklahoma, and the Big Ten winner to be locks, and then for there to be no other viable candidate for that fourth slot. If Alabama beats Florida, though, then the Buckeyes will have to root for Clemson to lose to get that spot to open up. As referenced above, Ohio State fans should root for Stanford to lose as well because the Cardinal could definitely jump Ohio State if they win the Pac-12, though that is definitely not a given.
Stanford: The Cardinal need to win convincingly to guarantee that they jump the Buckeyes. If that is taken care of, they just need one slot to open up. If Alabama loses, the Cardinal should definitely jump the Tide. If Clemson loses, Stanford is likely to jump them, though that is much less certain. Like Ohio State, if Alabama loses, the Cardinal probably want Clemson to win. They don’t want to be caught in a potential mess where the committee might jump North Carolina over them. Stanford wants just one Playoff spot open, getting that spot ahead of Ohio State.
North Carolina: The Tar Heels have no real resume to speak of, which isn’t so bad because Ohio State doesn’t have one either. Ohio State is living off the eye test; North Carolina needs to show that it can pass the eye test better. If the Tar Heels blow out Clemson they have a definite chance, though they would probably need Stanford to lose as well. If the Tar Heels win in less-than-dominant fashion, though, it is unlikely that they will jump all the way into the top 4. An Alabama loss would help them get there, but the Tar Heels probably need a convincing win just to get past Clemson.
This is it. These are the only eight teams that everyone thinks is still alive for the Playoff. However, I have one more that I think must be considered.
Notre Dame: Am I crazy? Maybe. At least compare the Irish’s resume to Ohio State’s before you judge me.
Notre Dame has a better strength of schedule, two more ranked wins, and three more top-40 wins. The Irish’s losses are by a combined four points in two true road games against top-10 teams. They want the exact scenario Ohio State wants, and they want the committee to actually compare their resumes. They also want Temple to beat Houston, preferably in convincing fashion, to make one of those ranked wins look even more valuable. They need Stanford to lose, but if they get that and a loss by Alabama, there is no reason why the Irish wouldn’t be strongly considered. A Clemson loss won’t help them, though, as the Tigers definitely stay ahead of Notre Dame because of head-to-head.
Florida isn’t alive. If the committee can jump the Gators back from No. 18 into the top 4, it would destroy the stated purpose of having weekly rankings (which are officially done so that the fans have some insight into the process and don’t get taken by complete surprise by any rankings). Maybe Florida can hope to beat Alabama by four or more touchdowns and pray that the committee forgets the month of November happened. Seriously, though — even with a solid resume, the Gators just haven’t looked like a Playoff team since beating Ole Miss a month ago. You can’t outweigh that with a single game, even if that game is against Alabama.
