There are a lot of high-profile college football games in Week 1 of this coming season. The slate is stacked. There are a lot of reasons for this, including, but not limited to, a rise in high payouts for high-profile neutral-site games and the fact that with more conferences moving to nine in-conference games, the P5 vs P5 games that used to be spread out over four weeks are now compacted into just three. Nevertheless, it’s easy to get swept up in the fact that many of our early perceptions of the season will be determined in Week 1.
Whether by design or sheer luck, however, the eyes of the nation will be on the Big Ten two weeks after that. The conference will be in the national spotlight for Week 3; how it does then could very well determine the perception of the league for the rest of the season.
The Big Ten is still struggling with a bit of a perception issue. For close to a decade, from about 2008-2013 (give or take a few years in either direction), the college football world viewed the Big Ten as a step behind the other Power conferences, with the possible exception of the Big East. Ohio State’s national championship in 2014, helped by Michigan State’s success in major bowls, put the idea that the Big Ten was too slow to compete to bed. The league’s rise to prominence in the field of national perception is still newfound and potentially fragile.
Which is why, of course, having the spotlight to itself could be a double-edged sword. No other Power 5 conference plays more P5 nonconference opponents than the Big Ten in Week 3. We will see five Big Ten schools take on Power 5 opponents that week, not to mention the fact that several others play intriguing Group of 5 teams (or, in Iowa’s case, a no-win game against the best FCS program that any of us have ever seen). Not only that, the league’s best teams will play some of the biggest games of the year that week.
Let’s start small, though. Michigan hosts Colorado. Colorado is not a very good team and the program is stuck in a deep rut right now, but this game will get attention for two reasons. First of all, it is a game featuring a CFP hopeful against a P5 opponent; secondly, it is also Michigan’s toughest nonconference test. This game will only matter if Michigan struggles, but Michigan will be highly-scrutinized in it.
I should also mention Northwestern’s game against Duke. Neither team has much clout in the college football world, but that might not be a fair perception anymore. Northwestern won ten games and ended the year ranked last year. Duke has posted three straight eight-win seasons and is now a constant contender in the ACC Coastal. These are two solid programs and a win for Northwestern will help the Big Ten look good, especially if Northwestern ends up towards the top of the Big Ten West again.
Those two games deserved mention, but they won’t be what drives the national narrative. In a game that will overshadow Colorado/Michigan, the Nebraska Cornhuskers will host Oregon. Oregon seems to have been slightly forgotten after a down year last year, but the Ducks are still a national power and Nebraska has high hopes of being rebuilt by coach Mike Riley to its earlier glory. Either way, this game will be the highest-profile game of the afternoon; it could be either a huge feather in the conference’s cap or another crack in the armor.
The main event will be at night, though, when the conference’s two flagship programs of the past 3-4 years will make Playoff-defining road trips. It’s anyone’s guess where Gameday will be that week, but I can guarantee that it will be in either Norman or South Bend. Ohio State visits Oklahoma. Michigan State travels to Notre Dame. These are the nonconference games that fans love to watch and that pundits love to use to prove which conference is the most dominant. Two wins by these two Big Ten schools will place the Big Ten firmly towards, or maybe even at, the top of the Power 5 conferences. Two losses will raise some serious doubts in the eyes of fans, voters, and the selection committee. And a split will probably maintain the status quo, whatever that is.
The Big Ten does play some high-profile nonconference games in other weeks of the season. Wisconsin and LSU face off in Week 1 while Penn State visits Pitt in Week 2. Michigan State will meet BYU in Week 6, which could either be a huge deal or a meaningless game by then, depending on how the season shapes up. But it will be these Week 3 games, and the Ohio State and Michigan State road trips in particular, that really will tell us how the fans and media will view the Big Ten this season.
Then again, this could all be moot. We saw back in 2014, when the Big Ten struggled in nonconference play–including Ohio State and Michigan State losses to other P5 teams–that the early-season perception hits could be overcome. Some media pundits declared the Big Ten effectively out of the Playoff chase as early as Week 2. Ohio State overcame that with tremendous showings in conference play, especially in the games against ranked teams. Of course, Ohio State’s selection into the Playoff was difficult and highly-criticized at the time. Being seen as the weakest P5 conference definitely made it much tougher for the Buckeyes to get in. If the Big Ten wants to avoid playing from behind like that all season, it will have to impress in Week 3.
