The college football world loves finding “separation Saturdays” during the season. While there are some Saturdays that see more separation than others, basically every Saturday once conference play starts has some major shakedowns in the College Football Playoff race, whether those are what we expect to see or not.
Week 4 didn’t have too many upsets, but conference play means that losses start to stack up. After two struggling weeks, Georgia was finally exposed to not being a real contender — which in turn leaves us with serious questions about North Carolina. Tennessee finally broke the Florida curse, in turn pushing the Gators out of the Playoff race for now and putting the Volunteers in a real position to make the Playoff. The next three games are against Georgia, Texas A&M, and Alabama — going 2-1 in that stretch puts Tennessee in perfect position to make the Playoff. Elsewhere in the SEC, Texas A&M established itself as a contender while Arkansas was shown to be a bit overrated, based on a win over a probably-overrated TCU team.
In the Big Ten, we saw Wisconsin break the expected top trio of Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State. The Badgers have an insane schedule this year, playing as many as six ranked teams (probably only five, though), all in the first eight games of the season. Meanwhile, Michigan State is stuck in a position where it probably needs to run the table to make the Playoff — and that means wins over Michigan and Ohio State.
The real separation came in the Pac-12, where we will eliminate the most teams this week (see below). Utah and Arizona State have risen to the top of the South while Stanford and Washington are the cream of the North. The Pac-12 might be the most balanced power 5 conference in the country, so this may not last. Still, the number of real Playoff contenders in that conference is down to four. In fact, Colorado is the only other Pac-12 team with less than two losses, and, well, it’s Colorado.
There may not have been any high-profile games in the Pac-12, but that’s where we saw the most separation. In conference play, every Saturday is “Separation Saturday.” Results eliminate teams and move contenders down into the “barely still alive” category. If you want proof of that, see the Pac-12 this week. No games may have had the national spotlight, but we can now basically acknowledge that the conference only has four possible Playoff contenders left.
Week 4 CFP Implications: Teams Eliminated from College Football Playoff Contention
We are just past the quarter mark of the season. While there haven’t been too many eliminations yet, we are definitely starting to see some separation among the contenders. My rule about eliminating teams is that it’s not my place to predict games; a team is only eliminated if it has no chance at the CFP — even if it runs the table. Many Power 5 teams, at least at this stage of the season, will have a chance at the Playoff with two losses and a conference championship, though it may take some chaos to get there. We can now start to see those two-loss teams who won’t have enough respect to make the Playoff if they run the table, so we can eliminate some of those. We will whittle our way down to about six or seven teams (only four, if we’re really lucky) by the end of conference championship weekend. But, we will do it slowly. The goal is to accurately eliminate each team while never eliminating a team too early — I don’t ever want to have to “un-eliminate” a team.
AAC: Only Navy, Houston, and Memphis are not yet eliminated
ACC: Virginia
Big 12: Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma State
Big Ten: Northwestern
Conference USA: All teams have been eliminated
Independents: UMass, BYU, Notre Dame, Army
MAC: Only Toledo and Western Michigan are not yet eliminated
Mountain West: Only Air Force, Boise State, and San Diego State are not yet eliminated
Pac-12: Washington State, USC, Oregon State, Arizona, UCLA
SEC: none
Sun Belt: All teams have been eliminated
I eliminated nine teams this week, bringing the total number of eliminated teams to 67. Four weeks into the season, over half of FBS has now been eliminated. Ten of the eliminations of from Power 5 conferences; 57 are from the Group of 5 conferences. Only eight G5 teams remain alive, and it’s honestly really seven; Toledo doesn’t have the schedule to even be in the discussion with a dominant 13-0 run. I’m just being nice and not eliminating the Rockets until they lose.
It was a tough call, but I eliminated Oklahoma State. The Cowboys might get some leeway with that controversial loss to Central Michigan, but it won’t be enough. There just aren’t enough good wins to go around in the Big 12. With the loss to Baylor, it is highly unlikely that Oklahoma State can get more than a maximum two ranked wins (and even that might take a fair amount of luck). The Big 12 just has too many losses early, which will make it easier to eliminate teams as opportunities for ranked wins get slimmer and slimmer.
Also, the SEC has no eliminations. Agree with it or not, the conference gets the most respect from the media, the voters, and the selection committee. Every team with two losses will have many chances at good wins from here on. The teams from the West get a chance to win what many consider the toughest division in college football, including a chance to beat Alabama. Teams from the East have an easier road, but can get Alabama in the conference championship game. Also, South Carolina and Kentucky (two of the two-loss teams in the East) get to play Clemson and Louisville, respectively, in Rivalry Week. The odds of any current two-loss SEC running the table is pretty low, but if it happens that team will very likely be in the Playoff.
Where Does the Big 12 Stand This Week?
I discussed the Big 12 last week and the week before. I don’t want to harp on the same topic every week, but the Big 12 situation currently is the most interesting in the Playoff race. Baylor and West Virginia are still undefeated, and each has a relatively decent chance at finishing the season with one loss.
The Big 12 certainly gets the least respect of any P5 conference this season. Also, as I said before, the opportunities for good wins are going to be slim in the conference. Any one-loss champion will be in a bit of a fight, but there is always a decent chance that another power conference will have a two-loss champion at best. Houston is always out there to play spoiler and possibly steal a spot from a second conference, but it’s a long season and running the table is never easy for any team.
Group of 5 Situation: AAC vs Mountain West
It’s still really early, so we’re just checking on the Group of 5 race periodically. In most years, the G5 conferences are competing for a spot in a New Years’ Six bowl and a chance to take on a Top 10 Power 5 team. Of course, that’s still part of the goal this year. A shot at the NY6 is built into the CFP contracts for the Group of 5. This year, though, much more could be at stake.
Houston is still in the running for a Playoff shot. Oklahoma’s loss to Ohio State hurts a bit, but a late-season showdown with Louisville keeps the hope alive. Houston might be considered the only real G5 chance at the CFP, but don’t forget the Mountain West. Boise State and San Diego State won’t play each other in the regular season, and the two have the rest of the Mountain West far outclassed. It’s never easy for a team to go undefeated and the teams have a combined 18 more games to play, but the conference office has to be drooling over a potential 12-0 vs 12-0 matchup in the conference championship game. It will be very hard to keep the winner of that matchup out of the NY6, regardless of where Houston ends up. And with the pair going a combined 3-0 against the Pac-12, it is definitely too early to write either off in the Playoff hunt, remote as their chances might be. With a little help from chaos in the power conferences, this could shape up to be a huge year for the Group of 5.
What to Look for in Week 5
The big game of the week is obviously Clemson/Louisville. It’s obvious that this game will determine who is in the Top 5 next week. Of course, the game is also huge for Houston. The Cougars need Louisville to be as valuable an opponent as possible when the two meet in November. A late-season meeting with a team in Playoff position is every Group of 5 team’s dream. It might actually work out for Houston this year — if Louisville can beat Clemson.
Stanford and Washington will meet Friday night in a game that really doesn’t have Playoff implications outside of the obvious value it gives the winner. Iowa has struggled the last two weeks; a game against a talented Northwestern team could be the end of the Big Ten West’s hopes of also having three ranked teams — something that would be very important to Nebraska and Wisconsin’s Playoff hopes.
Keep an eye on other conference matchups too. Tennessee/Georgia and North Carolina/Florida State will create more separation. Wisconsin/Michigan will prove whether the Badgers have a chance at making the Playoff despite their brutal schedule and just how good the Wolverines really are. Kansas State/West Virginia and Oklahoma/TCU will create some separation, and possibly some eliminations, in the Big 12. Lastly, for the Group of 5 followers, Central Michigan vs Western Michigan will decide if the MAC still has any outside chance of earning that NY6 bid (the MAC is all but out of it if CMU wins).
