The main story that any Playoff discussion will begin with this week is Ohio State’s loss to Penn State. The Buckeyes had major special teams issues and did not look good at all for much of the game, even if they controlled most of it. It ended in a loss, though, which will prompt much discussion among the media and Playoff pundits. Well, I’m here to tell you exactly what Ohio State’s loss means to its Playoff chances.
Nothing. It means absolutely nothing.
Okay, that’s a slight exaggeration. In reality, what it did was remove Ohio State’s margin of error. Nothing exemplifies the difference in college football between the BCS era and the Playoff era quite like this. Ohio State still controls its own destiny for the Playoff. If the Buckeyes suffer another loss, they will be out. But as of now, a 12-1 Ohio State team with wins over Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan, and then either Wisconsin or Nebraska again (in the Big Ten Championship Game) would be in the Playoff.
The only scenario in which that 12-1 Ohio State team doesn’t make the Playoff is if all four other Power 5 conferences have undefeated champions. (And, honestly, even in that case the Buckeyes might be ahead of an undefeated West Virginia team that would have a maximum of two ranked wins or an undefeated Washington team with possibly zero ranked wins, but we’ll have that discussion if it comes to it later in the season.) Regardless of that, though, four power conference champions have never gone undefeated in modern college football, and it won’t start happening this year.
This loss will hurt Ohio State’s seeding, though. An undefeated Buckeyes team would have been the top or second seed in the Playoff. Being the top seed means that Ohio State would get to play closest to Columbus, not that there is much travel distance between the Peach and Fiesta Bowls. The only difference being the No. 2 would make is the color of the jersey the Buckeyes would wear. Now, though, this loss probably means that Ohio State will not be a top two seed, which means a less favorable matchup in the semifinals. Still, the difference is negligible.
Under the BCS, Ohio State’s back would currently be against the wall. The Buckeyes would be waiting for teams in front of them to lose and hope that they have the best resume of all the one-loss teams — which they probably would this year. Now, though, there is no difference. Ohio State was six wins, including one over Michigan and winning the Big Ten Championship Game, away from a Playoff berth. Ohio State is still six wins, including one over Michigan and winning the Big Ten Championship Game, away from a Playoff berth.
Week 8 CFP Implications: Teams Remaining in College Football Playoff Contention
Last week, there were 24 teams remaining in Playoff contention. This week, there are still 24 teams remaining in Playoff contention. As discussed at length last week, the remaining contenders are significantly ahead most of the rest of the country. As upsets occur and losses pile up, these contenders will lose their wiggle room (like Ohio State did this week). For the time being, we will have a fair amount of two-loss teams still alive. That will dwindle as the current list of top contenders avoid upsets, but for now a bunch are still alive.
AAC: None
ACC: Clemson, Louisville, Florida State, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh
Big 12: Oklahoma, Baylor, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan, Ohio State, Maryland, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Minnesota
Conference USA: None
Independents: None
MAC: Western Michigan
Mountain West: Boise State
Pac-12: Washington, Utah
SEC: Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU, Auburn
Sun Belt: None
I thought about eliminating Maryland, but the same logic as last week applies for them. The Terrapins still have four potential Top 10 wins on the table, including Ohio State, Michigan, and Nebraska in the regular season. It’s not going to happen; I know that. My rule, though, is that it’s not my job to predict games, just to figure out and explain possibilities. If Maryland wins out, it will have an excellent shot at the Playoff. So I’ll just wait for Maryland to lose to one of those three teams before eliminating the Terrapins.
Group of 5 race tightening narrowing to MAC and Mountain West
Another major upset, which was completely overshadowed by Ohio State’s loss, was Houston’s shocking one-sided loss to SMU. The Cougars looked listless in dropping their second game of the season. It’s unlikely that we will see Houston ranked by the committee this year unless it can beat Louisville — which isn’t happening with Houston’s current level of play. Even so, with Navy beating Memphis it would now take a miracle for Houston to win the AAC West. If Navy doesn’t win out, though, it is unlikely that we will see a team from the AAC in a New Years’ Six bowl, as every other AAC team has at least two losses.
At this point in the season, in fact, the only two conferences with a good chance at making the NY6 are the MAC and the Mountain West — and not just because the top team in each conference is undefeated. Sure, Boise State and Western Michigan are ahead of everyone else. But even the next most-likely teams to get the G5 bid are from those conferences. Navy and Troy could get themselves in the mix by winning out, but Navy has several tough AAC games left and Troy still has to play the Sun Belt’s top three teams. The only other real G5 contenders right now, after Boise State, Western Michigan, and Navy, are San Diego State and Toledo. The Aztecs don’t have any real threats in the MWC and should be 11-1 when they meet Boise State in the conference championship game. Similarly, Western Michigan’s only real threat in the MAC is Toledo. So even if Boise State or Western Michigan stumbles, it is very likely that the team who beats them will also be one to replace them in the Group of 5 race.
Big 12 and Pac-12 haven’t cracked yet
All season long, we have been noting the trouble that the Big 12 and the Pac 12 have had. The two conferences, each in its own way, have collected too many losses spread around the conference. In the Big 12, it happened in non-conference play. Oklahoma picked up two losses while Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and TCU each lost a non-conference game. Baylor and West Virginia are still undefeated, but there is so little room within the conference to pick up quality wins; also, each has a pretty weak non-conference schedule, Baylor in particular. In the Pac-12, the losses came in conference play, as Washington is the only undefeated team remaining, while Utah is the only one-loss team left. Washington has a similar problem to Baylor, in that the non-conference schedule is incredibly weak.
Both conferences have been in precarious positions for a few weeks now, though the Big 12’s issues came up earlier. Still, neither conference has quite collapsed yet. The Playoff contenders in these conferences haven’t lost recently, meaning the conferences are still relevant in the Playoff chase. The Big 12 is just losses by Baylor and West Virginia away from being all but eliminated, but the Mountaineers are looking more and more like legitimate Playoff contenders each week. In the Pac-12, Washington and Utah are still moving through the season. Each is probably in the Playoff if it runs the table. What the Pac-12 does not want to see is for one to beat the other and the reverse to happen in a conference championship game rematch. Both of these conferences are on very thin ice, but they’ve been skating on that same ice unscathed for several weeks now. The only question is if it can last until the end of the year.
Other Implications from Penn State’s win
I don’t want to go too in-depth as to the ripples that Penn State’s win could have, so I just want to focus on two points. First of all, the Nittany Lions are now looking like a 10-2 team (the only real obstacle to that is a November 5th game against Iowa), which could very well put them in the New Years’ 6 conversation. The Big Ten looks to definitely have at least three NY6 teams (a Playoff team, a Rose Bowl team, and either Wisconsin or Nebraska probably gets slotted into the Orange Bowl). There is only one NY6 at-large slot left–against the G5 representative in the Cotton Bowl (we’re going to assume for now that no G5 team will make the Playoff). With the dearth of one-loss teams right now, it’s entirely possible that Penn State could get that spot with a 10-2 record.
The other major beneficiary of this Penn State win is Pittsburgh. I almost eliminated the Panthers after Miami’s losses these past few weeks. After all, the only reason that Pittsburgh is not yet eliminated was they opportunity for several big wins in-conference, including games against then-ranked Clemson and Miami. With Miami falling apart, though, it’s inconceivable that a two-loss team could earn a Playoff spot on the back of just wins over Clemson and Louisville (or Clemson again in the ACC Championship Game). That Penn State win now looks like a potential Top 10-15 win and three such wins would definitely keep Pitt in the picture for now.
What to look for in Week 9
Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh will kick off the weekend in an ACC Coastal battle of fringe Top 25 teams. ACC fans want Pittsburgh to win this one, as the Panthers would have the better resume and rankings — something that could matter if Clemson picks up a loss and needs a resume-boosting win in the ACC Championship Game. On Friday, Navy has a tough trip to South Florida. A Midshipmen loss would put the AAC way behind the 8-ball in the G5 race, though not out of it completely.
On Saturday, West Virginia will face its biggest road test of the season so far when it travels to Oklahoma State. If the defense looks stout in that game as well, there may not be any Big 12 team that can upset the Mountaineers. That’s important for just about anyone looking for a Playoff spot. The same is true for Baylor when the Bears visit Texas. Of course, those games matter to each other too; if Baylor and West Virginia are both undefeated when they meet on the final weekend of the year, the Big 12 will be guaranteed a Playoff spot. Similarly, Washington travels to Utah. If the Utes can’t beat Washington, then the Apple Cup may be the only game standing between Washington and a Playoff berth.
Keep an eye on Florida/Georgia. If the Gators lose that game, Louisville’s thin Playoff case will get that much thinner. The Cardinals need quality wins if they want to make the Playoff. Houston’s loss hurt them, because it looks like Florida State will be their only ranked win. Unless the Seminoles beat Clemson, Florida State will be 9-3 without many quality wins on its own resume. If Louisville wants that Florida State win to look good come December, it needs the Seminoles to beat a Florida team that is as valuable as possible on rivalry weekend.
The night will see two ranked meetings when Nebraska visits Wisconsin and Florida State hosts Clemson. Each of those games has obvious implications, so we don’t need to go too far in depth for those.
