We preface this piece by saying that the American Athletic Conference’s West Division is not struggling this season. Memphis, Houston and Navy could be in the process of giving us three teams which will be in the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six bowl hunt when November begins.
However, that’s not the realm of the Power 5 conferences. As far as the big boys are concerned, there are no conference superiority arguments to be made after one month… because everyone’s struggling. There are too many flaws in each power league for anyone to chant the conference’s acronym or something similarly snappy. (Back The Pac! Go Big 12! B1G IDEAS!)
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We begin with the SEC, primarily because it is still viewed by many as the centerpiece of any college football discussion. Some will reflexively say the SEC deserves the benefit of the doubt in most debates about team strength. Others will just as reflexively say that the SEC is overrated and has been overrated for quite some time, due to being constantly fed by the ESPN machine.
Whatever your thoughts on that (not-very-important) topic, here’s what matters at the end of September in 2015: The SEC has taken some noticeable hits already.
Missouri. Alabama. Arkansas thrice. Auburn twice. Tennessee twice. Perceived contenders in both divisions — that’s one thing. (We’re referring to Mizzou and Tennessee in the East, Arkansas in the West.) National title contenders (Alabama and especially Auburn) being roughed up, including at home… BEFORE OCTOBER?
Ruh-roh.
Alabama plays Georgia this upcoming weekend. The loser of that game will be on the ropes as far as the playoff is concerned. With Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and LSU having to play each other later this season, the SEC’s field of national title contenders could shrink well before the season ends.
In the Pac-12, you can and should applaud the teams that won. However, Arizona, Arizona State, and Oregon produced stink-bombs this past weekend. Oregon has zero margin for error in the playoff chase… before October. Arizona’s in big trouble, since it has to go to Stanford in week five. USC did bounce back, but it can’t afford another slip-up. Arizona State is a total disaster and a huge letdown for the conference. The Utah-UCLA winner in late November has a legitimate chance of making the College Football Playoff, but those teams have a month and a half to survive first.
If it’s an uncomfortable time for the SEC, the Pac-12 can’t say it’s much better.
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The Big 12 and Big Ten seasons are just getting going, but with TCU and Michigan State so thoroughly decimated by injuries, those conferences might have only one national title contender apiece (Baylor and Ohio State). West Virginia (Big 12) and the Michigan-Northwestern combo (Big Ten) have been pleasant surprises so far this season, but the struggles of Texas, Kansas State (albeit injury-influcenced), Oklahoma State, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Maryland (among others) show that the Big 12 and Big Ten do indeed appear to be top-heavy.
This leaves the ACC, which has seen Georgia Tech wither under pressure; Virginia disappear; Virginia Tech suffer two more September losses; and North Carolina blow a game against South Carolina. The ACC sorely needs Clemson to beat Notre Dame this Saturday. A Tiger win vaults Dabo Swinney’s group into the heart of the playoff conversation. It also enables the Clemson-Florida State winner to (potentially) go unbeaten and establish a clubhouse lead in the chase for a playoff spot.
Speaking of a clubhouse lead: no Power 5 league has it in college football at this point in time.
Save your conference superiority arguments for November. We have a lot of learning to do — and a lot to sort out — until then.
