Around the end of college football season, it could be, ahem, a chaotic time around these parts. “These parts” being “the entire United States of America.”
So forgive us all if it sneaks up on us in the dark of night, but there’s a realistic scenario where the SEC would be forked out of the CFB Playoff. It’s not likely, given the adoration for the conference by media types and the conference’s penchant for winning big neutral site games, but the possibility is more realistic probably than ever.
For one, the SEC gets the business end of the “neutral site games” thing this year. LSU and Wisconsin play … in Wisconsin. Ole Miss and Florida State play … in Florida. Southern Cal and Alabama play … in Texas, which is mostly a wash.
On a non-neutral but non-conference perspective that will help build perception about the conference, Missouri goes to West Virginia and Arkansas goes to TCU.
Add to the fact that the SEC feels a little more unknown than in recent years, and the conference is littered with more quarterback questions than answers, and it’s feasible versus the usual “impossible” that without some severe massaging of facts, the SEC would be the most logical conference left out of the playoff.
Here’s the entirely reasonable pathway, and please don’t throw rocks.
- Florida State, North Carolina, and Wisconsin win neutral site games:
All three of the above teams are favored in their games, and in the cases of FSU and Wisconsin, should be enjoying heavily partisan crowds. Suppose all three hold serve … that will be a massive perception swing that will last deep into December. College football isn’t politics. The 24-hour news cycle doesn’t necessarily make the bleeding hearts forget what happened months ago.
- Arkansas and Missouri lose on the road to TCU and WVU, respectively, and Auburn loses at home to Clemson
This scenario is entirely logical, as well. TCU has established itself as a national power you can expect to contend annually. WVU should have an electric offense and Missouri enters with legitimate questions, though they seemingly have a knack for overachieving these days. Still, these down ballot conference losses would add to a perception that the SEC doesn’t play as strong outside the conference. Clemson figures to be one of the best teams in the country, and even with home field, that’ll be a tough one to get for Auburn. On the flip side, if Auburn wins, wow, what a huge notch on the belt for the conference.
- The Conference Champ finishes with at least two losses
A little of this depends on the strength of the other conference champs, and eventually, we’re going to run into a scenario where a 0 or 1-loss division champ somewhere loses in the conference title game to a 3-4 loss outfit out of contention. Could it happen here? The East is improving, but still is mountains behind the West in power. It wouldn’t be far-fetched to see a Florida, for instance, win a one-game playoff versus the SEC West, nor would it be far fetched to see 0 or 1-loss champs from other conferences and a 2-or more loss champ from the SEC considering some of the rugged schedules.
- Florida State screws the entire conference at the beginning and the end
FSU can dust off Ole Miss in Week One, and depending on how Florida does, them in the Gators in the final week of the season (like last year, right before the SEC title game) and really create a narrow path for the champ, almost forcing it to be the SEC West winner.
What’s more likely to happen:
Yes, there are questions at Alabama concerning their rugged schedule, with trips to Ole Miss, LSU, and Arkansas while breaking in a new starting quarterback, but if all else fails, they somehow seem to always be there with a shot in the end.
The rest of the country will go as it always does, and near November when we have 5-8 unbeaten teams still, panic will set in against all logic, because college football always figures itself out in the end. Pressure will set in and teams will lose games they otherwise shouldn’t lose.
Oh, and the SEC won’t go 0-fer in those non-conference games, even if they’re the underdogs this time around. It’s just a quirky rotation that so many of them are partisan neutral sites veering away from the SEC in many cases, but the conference deserves the benefit of the doubt in situations like this. Regardless of what oddsmakers think, would it really be shocking to see LSU beat Wisconsin or Georgia knock off UNC?
The most concerning scenario would be the situation where a division champ from an inferior division wins the title game with a bevy of losses. Then what would you do?
The SEC will likely be there in December where it normally is, but one conference is guaranteed to be left out, and SEC DOOM, while not likely, isn’t as far-fetched as usual, either.
