With the Final Four quickly approaching, people are looking for different ways to talk about each national semifinal on Saturday. Duke playing Michigan State has that tried-and-true angle: Coach K and Tom Izzo. Kentucky-Wisconsin is being viewed by many in a different way, one which — unfortunately — ignores a season’s worth of evidence in favor of a less educated viewpoint.
Apparently Wisconsin has a seven-footer named Frank Kaminsky, who happens to be very good at the basketball, especially in terms of his ability to function at all spots on the court. Because of that, Wisconsin — to many observers — has a mismatch in its favor. You know, as if the Wildcats don’t have an abundance of agile size.
The trio of Willie Cauley-Stein, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Trey Lyles — all 6-10 or larger — are a special frontcourt threesome. All season long the three bigs have done everything John Calipari has asked of them. By sharing time on the floor, splitting looks at the basket, and guarding all five positions on the court, WCS, Towns and Lyles have established themselves as the best trio of 5s in the country, with no other triumvirate in their same zip code in terms of quality.
The fact that the three of them have been put in positions by Calipari where they don’t switch on screens, which sometimes forces them to defend a guard alone, is why Wisconsin’s reported mismatch benefit is rather baffling. Are we supposed to honestly believe that any of those three guys, who have all defended guards with regularity, will not be able to handle Kaminsky when he shoots beyond 15 feet?
The same could be said when any of those guys match up against Sam Dekker or Nigel Hayes. Maybe those guys happen to be quicker than Kentucky’s big men, but it isn’t as though the size of Lyles, Cauley-Stein, or Towns doesn’t benefit them on the other side of the court. Believe it or not, mismatches can work both ways on opposite sides.
It is so easy to be impressed by Wisconsin’s ability to spread the floor with frontcourt players who can all shoot threes. Yet, focusing solely on the Badgers’ attributes ignores Kentucky’s ability to counter on defense. That’s what a great many people are missing in their attempts to size up this clash.
What Wisconsin does have with Kaminsky is a guy who could potentially take one of Kentucky’s big men away from the basket, which could theoretically open up the lanes for other Wisconsin players to get to the basket… if there weren’t two other large Wildcats roaming around the rim at all times. This is the dead end many people are running into when talking about this game.
Wisconsin will have to be very creative in how it deploys personnel, spacing the floor in ways Notre Dame did last weekend. Yet, after being carved up by the Irish’s combination of screens and cuts, Kentucky is going to be much more aware of its deficiencies, which could lead to its best defensive performance of the season. Wisconsin and Bo Ryan face a difficult chalkboard challenge in Saturday second national semifinal. It’s not as though Wisconsin’s best offensive strengths, merely by existing, will naturally show up. Kentucky is built to handle those strengths.
This is what happens we people try to get too cute while looking for reasons Kentucky will falter. People have spent all season looking for glaring flaws on a roster which doesn’t have any. Are they unbeatable? Probably not, but pointing to Wisconsin’s seven-footer who can shoot threes doesn’t make the Wildcats’ collection of tall trees go away.
With that being said, though, there are even weirder, more nontraditional ways to look at how Wisconsin, in the Final Four setting, may fare better than previous Kentucky foes. My personal favorite is that with NCAA Tournament commercial breaks averaging close to four minutes (if you include the dead time from the end of the last pre-timeout play to the very start of the first post-timeout play), it takes away one of Kentucky’s greatest attributes, its depth… as though the opponents’ legs aren’t being run into the ground the same way they were during the regular season.
Greatness overwhelms inferiority. Why is the TV timeout angle being used as a reason Kentucky might lose? Just like Willie Cauley-Stein’s arms, the TV timeout angle is a reach… a long one.
Stop pretending the Badgers are better on paper than the Wildcats, because they are not. Do not attempt to look at potential mismatches, since they work both ways. Want to argue effectively for Wisconsin in this game? Just say that while Kentucky has the better roster, Wisconsin’s best player is better than Kentucky’s best player. Just stop trying to ignore all of Kentucky’s advantages in favor of ideas that aren’t actual facts.
Do the Badgers have a chance against Kentucky? Well, they have at least a puncher’s chance. It isn’t because of potential mismatches, though. It is because they have showed the ability (especially against Arizona) to shoot lights out, have some very good players of their own, and have a very good coach on the sideline.
Yet, again, the funny thing is that Kentucky has all those things as well. All of them, if not ten-fold. So can we please stop pretending otherwise?
You can admire what Wisconsin does. Just don’t view the Badgers in a vacuum, as though their positive qualities will automatically show up on Saturday. Sports are dialogues, not monologues. Kentucky will have their players present on Saturday as well, you know?
